协同、异质与颠覆性:我国新型城镇化进程中银行支持与转型问题研究

Synergy, Heterogeneity and Subversion: Banking Supports and Transformations of China's New Urbanization

新型城镇化是我国经济发展的最大潜力,必然带来经济转型和社会的深刻变革。银行业作为当前我国金融的主体,必将在我国城镇化进程中发挥融资主渠道作用。本文依据1994—2012年的面板数据,运用因果检验和相关性分析,试图探讨银行业与城镇化二元协同的因果关系和历史溯源,着重点在于银行业支持城镇化中存在的异质背离,包括追随效应、短板效应和碎片化效应。在此基础上,本文原创性地提出了新型城镇化"制度转换断层"概念,就银行业在城镇化发展中的顶层设计进行了颠覆性思考,认为银行业应该推进先导性战略、实行系统整体设计、践行普惠制金融,并给出了结论和建议。

The new urbanization is a great potential for China＇ s economic development. It will inevitably bring about economic transitions and social changes. Banking sector, as the main part of China＇ s financial system, will be the main financing channel in urbanization. This paper conducts causality tests and correlation analysis using the panel data in 1994 -2012 and intends to find the eausality and historical sourses of the coordinated devel- opment of banking sector and urbanization. The key point of this paper lays in the heterogeneous deviations of bank- ing supports and urbanization, including clientele effects, short board effects and fragmentation effects. This paper innovatively proposes the concept of ＂institutional transformations default＂ in new urbanization. It proposes some subversion thoughts on top designs of how banks should support urbanization, and suggests that banks should promote the pilot strategy, implement integrated system design, and practice the GSP financial model.