FDI流入、对外贸易与经济增长方式转变——基于中国1993年～2008年省际面板数据的实证研究

FDI,International Trade and Transformation of Economic Growth Patterns——Based on Panel Data from 1993 to 2008 in China

笔者基于1993年～2008年省级面板数据，考察了FDI和对外贸易对经济增长方式的影响，研究凸显以1999年为断点的阶段性差异。全样本回归结果显示FDI流入促进了全要素生产率的提高，而对外开放度的提高抑制了全要素生产率的改进；以1997年为断点的分时期回归结果显示在1999年后对外开放度对全要素生产率产生的影响效果在削弱，而FDI的影响效果较为稳定；分区域的回归结果显示中部地区FDI和对外开放度对全要素生产率的影响最为显著，其次是西部地区和东部地区。

Based on provincial panel data from 1993 to 2008, the paper discusses the effects of FDI and openness degree on the transfor- mation of economic growth patterns. The results show the present difference with the breakpoint of 1999. Regression based on the total sample shows FDI contributes to the promotion of TFP, while openness degree prevents TFP; regression based on the breakpoint of 1999 shows openness degree after 1999 have less remarkable effects, while FDI has stable influence; regression based regions shows that FDI and openness degree in central region has more remarkable influence towards TFP than western region and eastern region. Pol- icy suggestion put forward based on China reality.