金融危机对中国实体经济的传导机制和外部性研究——基于动态随机一般均衡视角

Conduction Mechanisms and Externalities of Financial Crisis on China's Real Economy——Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Perspective

笔者基于2001年第1季度到2010年第4季度的中国经济数据,运用VAR模型验证了中美两国股市的联动性,并在原RBC模型的基础上加入新的假设,建立一个DSGE模型。经过数量建模分析,得到美国的金融危机对中国实体经济的脉冲响应,验证了本文的传导机制,得到金融因素外部性的结论,并提出相应的建议。

This paper tests the linkage between China＇ s stock market index and USA stock market index with VAR mode and DSGE model by adding new presume on RBC. By methodical model analysis, it is found that the US financial crisis＇ s impulse affect on Chi- na＇ s real economy with conduction mechanism and externalities. Proposal made for government policy making.