财政收入构成与财政赤字规模——基于中国省级地方政府的分析

Fiscal Revenue Structure and the Deficit Scale——Based on the Analysis of China's 31 Provincial Local Governments

笔者通过多元线性回归模型，利用中国省级地方政府1996年～2011年的相关数据，对地方政府财政收入与财政赤字规模之间的关系进行了分析。研究发现中央对地方转移支付、地方财政非税收入、地方共享税收入以及地方税收入对地方政府财政赤字具有不同的影响程度和影响方向。这对于积极推进地方税制改革，将地方税制改革完善纳入新一轮税制改革的整体设计具有借鉴意义。

This paper discusses the tax system reform theoretically and empirically, local government budget deficit expanding reason. The local government budget deficit is the difference between the local fiscal revenue and fiscal expenditure. Theoretical analysis shows that the local fiscal revenue, including income transfer payments to non-tax revenue, shared tax revenue, local tax revenue. It is found that the different items of income of the local government budget deficit.