“九连增”后的思考:粮食内部结构调整的贡献及未来潜力分析

Analysis on China's Nine-year Consecutive Grain Production Growth:Contribution and Future Potential of Inter-crop Structural Adjustment

2004—2012年我国粮食产量实现"九连增"。除播种面积扩大和各作物单产水平提高以外,粮食内部种植结构调整、高产作物对低产作物的种植替代也是促进粮食持续增产的不可忽视的重要因素。本文将粮食"九连增"的贡献因素分解为播种面积、单产水平和结构调整三个部分,并对各部分的增产贡献率进行了测度。分析结果表明,"九连增"期间粮食作物内部结构调整对增产的贡献率年均为26%,贡献率最高的年份达到67%。分区域来看,东北地区是全国粮食种植结构调整幅度最大、贡献也最为显著的区域,占结构调整对全国粮食增产总贡献率的70%。

China has achieved historical nine-year consecutive grain production increase from the year 2004 to 2012. Apart from the expansion of grain sown area and yield increase,structural adjustment amonggrain crops with high yielding crops replacing low-yielding ones is also an important factor contributing to the output growth. In this paper,the grain output growth has been decomposed into three factors— sown area increase,yield rising and cropping structural adjustment. The results show that the structural adjustment among grain crops has contributed a yearly average of 26% to the national grain output growth,with the highest year reaching 67%. Northeast China,from a regional perspective,is the area experienced the biggest grain crop restructuring in the country and accounts for nearly 70% of the contribution of the restructuring to the national output growth. The paper further discusses the driving forces of the grain crop restructuring as well as further potentials for continuous grain production growth in China in the future.