“少子化”“老龄化”对我国城镇家庭消费与产出的影响

The Impact of Low Birth Rate and Aging on the Urban Household Consumption and Output of China

利用中国家庭住户收入调查1988～2007年数据和2007年投入产出表，探讨“少子化”与“老龄化”对我国城镇家庭消费和产出的影响。研究发现，“少子化”降低了我国城镇家庭的消费，“老龄化”增加了我国城镇家庭的消费，两者的净影响为负。受“少子化”影响较大的消费支出为食品支出、衣着支出、医疗保健支出和教育文化娱乐服务支出。受“老龄化”影响比较大的消费支出为医疗保健支出、交通和通信支出、教育文化娱乐服务支出和居住支出。本文进一步利用投入产出表估计了最终需求变动的产业关联效果。

Applying CHIP in 1988 -2007 and input-output tables in 2（I）7, this paper explored the impact of low birth rate and aging on the consumption and output of China＇ s urban household. This paper concluded that low birth rate reduced the consumption of urban households in China while aging increased it; the net impact of both aspects was negative. Low birth rate had significant impact on expenditures of food, clothing, health care, educational and cultural entertainment services. Aging had significant impact on expenditures of health care, transportation and communication, education and culture entertainment services and living. Furthermore, this paper estimated the industry association effect of the final demand change applying the input - output tables.