人口城镇化、城乡收入差距与居民消费需求——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

Urbanization,Urban-rural Income Gap and Consumption Demand:Based on an Empirical Analysis of Province Panel Data

城镇化成为增加居民消费需求的潜力所在。本文在现有研究的基础上深入分析人口城镇化影响消费需求的理论机制，并在该机制的基础上利用1995—2010年全国28个省市面板数据对人口城镇化、城乡收入差距与居民消费需求的关系进行实证分析。实证结果表明：人口城镇化率与居民消费率呈现正相关关系，并从中可得到连续增加1％的城镇化率所能增加的居民消费率呈递减趋势；城乡实际收入差距与居民消费需求呈现倒U型关系，据计算倒u型关系出现的峰值在城乡实际收入比为3．47时。因此，提出把握推进城镇化建设时机，警惕城乡收入差距，这样才有利于扩大内需、转变经济发展方式。

Urbanization has become the potential power of increasing consumption demand. This paper analyzes the mechanism of increasing consumption demand based on current studies,conducts an empirical analysis by 1995 ~ 2010 data of 28 provinces or cities. The results show: firstly,there is a positive correlation between urbanization and consumption demand,and the marginal effect of urbanization on consumption is decreasing. Secondly,an inverse U relationship is proved between urban-rural real income gap and consumption demand,and the urban-rural real income gap is 3. 47when the consumption demand come to maximum. So,promoting the construct of urbanization and alerting the urban-rural income gap will benefit increasing domestic demand and transforming the economic development mode.