金融摩擦视角下的房产税、信贷政策与住房价格

Property Taxation,Credit Policy and Housing Prices from the Perspective of Financial Friction

文章通过构建引入金融摩擦的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型,研究了在房产税税率和金融摩擦强度不同的情况下,住房价格受到各种冲击后的反应状况。研究发现:(1)当经济中存在金融摩擦时,房产税对房价的抑制作用会被削弱,但随着房产税税率的上升,这种削弱作用会减小;(2)房产税与紧缩房地产开发商贷款和紧缩个人购房贷款三者的政策组合与调高利率的货币政策对降低房价的作用相当,但房产税与信贷政策的组合对产出波动的影响较小;(3)金融摩擦效应的增强使企业信贷配给额度冲击成为影响房价波动的最主要因素,这说明当房地产行业得到的金融支持和信贷减少时,企业信贷配给额度的微小变动就会引起房价的剧烈波动。

By constructing a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial friction, this paper analyzes the response of housing prices to various shocks under different ratios of property taxation and distinct intensity of financial friction. It comes to the following conclusions： firstly, financial friction can weaken the negative effect of property taxation on housing prices and with the increase in the ratios of property tax- ation, the weakening effect of financial friction on property taxation decreases＇ secondly, compared to the monetary policy of the rise in interest rates, the policy combination of property taxation, the constrictions of the loans of real estate developers and the constrictions of individual housing loans plays a similar role in the reduction in housing prices, but the combination of property taxation and credit policy has the smaller effect on output fluctuations; thirdly, the increase in financial fric- tion effect makes corporate credit rationing shock be the main reason for the fluctuations in housing prices, showing that with the reduction in financial support and credit in real estate industry, minor fluctuations in corporate credit rationing cause big fluctuations in housing prices.