云南藏区跨越式发展的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Leapfrogging Development of Tibetan Areas in Yunnan

本文以近30年的统计数据为依据,从经济增长、产业结构水平、基础设施建设、人力资本和教育、固定资产投资增长及人类发展指数等六个方面全面描述了云南藏区跨越式发展的现实状态,进而对云南藏区经济增长的过程和动因作了实证分析。文章认为,1999以来云南藏区经济社会发展呈现出跨越式发展的格局,但以高投入、高资源消耗为代价的经济增长已难以为继,转变发展方式,实施可持续发展战略是云南藏区经济社会发展的内在要求。

The paper describes the leapfrogging development of Tibetan areas in Yunnan from the growth of economy,the level of industrial structure,the infrastructure construction,the human capital and education,the growth of investment in fixed assets,and the Human Development Index based on recent 30 years' statistical data;on the basis of it,gives a empirical analysis of the cause for the growth of economy of those areas.Several conclusions may be drawn that the economy and society in Tibetan areas in Yunnan already has been a leapfrogging development since 1999;its further development depends on the transformation of the development pattern which means implementing the strategy of sustainable development because the model of the growth of economy at the cost of high input and high consumption of resources will be rather difficult to continue.