基于自适应蒙特卡罗法的导线载流量不确定度分析

Conductor Carrying Capacity Uncertainty Analysis Based on Adaptive Monte Carlo Method

现有导线载流量计算方法是基于一系列气象观测数据,以及特性参数计算得到的。气象观测数据是通过测量得到的,特性参数是基于数据手册得到的,都存在一定误差,由此再根据热平衡方程计算得到的导线载流量存在误差。因而仅仅给出一个载流量的值是不够的,需要给出载流量的不确定度,这样的计算结果才是更可靠的。研究了蒙特卡罗方法在导线载流量不确定度分析中的应用方法,提出采用自适应的蒙特卡罗方法对输电线路稳态以及暂态载流量进行计算并分析,给出了导线载流量在给定置信区间下的范围以及导线载流量的均值和方差。

Currently, the calculation of conductor carrying capacity is based on meteorological observation data and characteristic parameters. But there exist errors for the meteorological observation data is obtained by observation, and characteristic parameters are obtained from data manual. The conductor carrying capacity calculated by the data via heat balance equation also has errors. Therefore, the precise calcultion requires the capacity uncertainty range, in- stead of just the value. This paper explores the application of Monte Carlo method to the analysis of the conductor car- rying capacity uncertainty. And adaptive Monte Carlo method is proposed to analyze and calculate the carrying capaci- ty of the overhead transmission line in steady state and transient state. The range of conductor carrying capacity is de-fined for a given interval, and the mean and variance of the conductor carrying capacity are computed.