电动汽车充放电的动态随机模型研究

Dynamic Stochastic Models for Electric Car Charging and Discharging

电动汽车等各类电力负荷因社会生产和生活规律而具有特定的变化规律,同时各种活动又具有很强的随机性,负荷也随机波动。通过分析典型馈线负荷曲线的变化规律和电动汽车负荷充放电的规律性与随机性,建立常规负荷和电动汽车充放电的动态随机模型。基于实际馈线负荷数据和蒙特卡洛法进行仿真分析,结果表明采用曲线拟合方法可获得负荷变化的基础函数模型,电动汽车的有序充放电可降低负荷的峰谷差。

Power loads, including electric cars, change regularly with the social production and life;while the random social activity variations result in the random load fluctuations. The dynamic stochastic models for conventional loads and electric ear charging and discharging are established through analyzing the change law of typical feeder load curve and the regularity and randomness of electric ear charging and discharging. Based on simulation analysis of actual da-ta from feeder load and Monte Carlo method, it is showed that the basic function model for load variations can be ob-tained by curve fitting method, and that the orderly electric car charging and discharging can reduce difference be-tween peak and valley of the total loads.