广东省能源消费与经济增长动态关系研究——基于环境库兹涅茨曲线假说

Study on Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Guangdong Province——Based on Hypothesis of Environmental Kuznets Curve

基于库兹涅茨曲线模型,对广东1980—2010年经济增长与能源消费的动态关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,在整个研究期间,广东省人均能源消费与人均经济增长协整关系呈单调正相关,1999年的结构断点使两者的协整关系发生变化,断点分隔的两个时间段内均符合倒"U"型模型,但曲线拐点后移。广东省现处于倒"U"型曲线的左端,EKC理论拐点为23253元(1978年不变价)。广东省应采取积极有效的节能减排政策,引导促进倒"U"型曲线弧度降低,让拐点提前到来。

This paper studied the relation between economic growth and energy consumption based on EKC using the data from 1980 to 2010 of Guangdong. The empirical results were as follows：The relationship between Guangdong＇s per capita energy consumption and per capita economic growth was monotonic positive throughout the whole study period while a change might occurred in the late 1990s. 1999 year was confirmed as the most plausible year for the break. Quadratic function estimates provided evidence for energy EKC both in the period 1980 - 1999 and 2000 - 2010, while the turning point of EKC was postponed. Nowadays Guangdong was still in the left ascending channel of the inverted ＂U＂ curve, the theoretical turning point would be RMB 23253（At constant prices of 1978） .The results suggested that Guangdong should take positive energy-saving policy to promote lower inverted ＂U＂ curve radian and advance the turning point.