基于行为博弈的特大型工程项目复杂风险组合性均衡评价

Balance Evaluation for Complex Risk Compositionality of Super-large Engineering Projects Based on Behavior Game Theory

基于行为博弈理论构建了特大型工程项目复杂风险组合性均衡评价模型。在项目风险评价中,不仅要综合考虑风险发生的可能性和价值影响,还应嵌入项目关联主体的价值偏好和动态博弈因素,从而使项目复杂风险评价具有更为合理的主体行为基础。首先从博弈视角分析了特大型工程项目复杂风险评价的特殊性,其次运用模糊层次法、行为实验方法设计指标体系和参数,最后对模型进行算例分析,得出项目分类风险和组合性风险指数。

Based on Behavior Game Theory, this paper establishes a balance model for evaluation of the complex risk of superlarge en gineering projects. In the project risk evaluation, we should not only think about the probability and valuable influences of risks, but also value preference and dynamic game factors of the itemassociated subject, making the evaluation of the complex risk of projects have more rational behavioral base. Firstly, it analyzes the particularity of risk evaluation for superlarge engineering projects from the perspective of game. Secondly, it designs index system and parameters by fuzzy AHP and behavioral experimental approaches. Thirdly, it makes a calculation example analysis to obtain indexes of classification risk and compositionality risk.