邯郸市1997～2010年肺结核发病的气象流行病学特征分析和探讨

The Meteorological Epidemiological Analysis and Discussion of the Onset of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Handan from 1997 to 2010

目的查找适用于研究肺结核发病率与气象因素之间关系的统计方法,探讨邯郸市肺结核的气象流行病学特征。方法收集1997年1月至2010年12月邯郸市肺结核疫情、气象及人口资料,采用EpiData3.0进行"双重录入",采用SPSS 17.0统计分析软件对数据进行分析。结果气象参数的共线性诊断结果显示,本组气象因子数据容差最小为0.012,方差膨胀因子最大达69.871;Spearman相关分析显示,肺结核月发病率与月小型蒸发量、月平均风速、月日照时数之间呈正相关;肺结核月发病率曲线估计方程为Y^=2.847-0.052X+0.001X2-4.316X3;肺结核月发病率与10个气象因素之间未拟合出显著的曲线关系;气象参数的Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin(KMO)和Bartlett检验结果显示10个气象参数非常适合做因子分析,通过做主成分多元线性回归分析得到方程Y^=3.580+0.345Z2。结论邯郸市10个气象参数之间存在严重的多重共线性;月小型蒸发量、月平均风速、月日照时数是影响肺结核发病的气象因素;邯郸市肺结核月发病率呈三次模型曲线;肺结核月发病率和10个气象因素之间无显著的曲线关系;气象因素对肺结核发病的影响在总的影响因素中所占比例很小。

Objective To find a scientific method which applies to research the relationships between the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis and meteorological factors, and discuss the meteorological epidemiology characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in Handan. Methods The data of pulmonary tuberculosis, meteoro- logical parameters and population during 1997 to 2010 of Handan were collected and inputted doubly to EpiData 3.0 and SPSS 17.0 statistical analysis software was used to analyze the data. Results Collinearity diagnosis of meteorological parameters showed that the minimal tolerance was 0. 012 and the maximal vari- ance inflation factor was 69. 871. It showed that the monthly incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis had signifi- cant positive correlation with monthly small-scale evaporation capacity, the monthly average wind speed and monthly sunshine hours by Spearman correlation analysis. Curve estimation equation of pulmonary tuberculo- sis monthly incidence was i/= 2. 847 -0. 052X ＋ 0. 001X2 -4. 316X3. There were no curve relationships among pulmonary tuberculosis monthly incidence and ten meteorological parameters. The result of KMO and Bartlett test of the ten meteorological parameters showed that it was very suitable for factor analysis. The equa- tion was obtained by principal component multivariate linear regression analysis, Y = 3. 580 ＋ 0. 345Z2. Conclusion The 10 meteorological parameters present significant muhicollinearity. Monthly small-scale evaporation capacity, the monthly average wind speed and monthly sunshine hours are the meteorological fac- tors influencing pulmonary tuberculosis monthly incidence. The monthly incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis was the cubic model curve. The curvilinear relationships between the monthly incidence of pulmonary tuber- culosis and 10 meteorological parameters had not fitted out. The influence of meteorological factors to pulmo- nary tuberculosis incidence accounts for a very small proportion among the general influence factors.