二氧化碳排放与经济增长脱钩关系研究

Decoupling Relation between Carbon Dioxide Emission and Economic Growth

随着中国经济的高速发展,能源消耗量逐渐增大,与此相关的二氧化碳排放量也在不断增加。因此研究中国二氧化碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系对促进节能减排有重要的意义。文章的主要目的是测算1995-2009年二氧化碳的排放清单,并绘制2009年中国碳流图,最后对二氧化碳排放与经济增长进行脱钩分析。结果表明:(1)中国二氧化碳排放总量从1995年的29.63亿t增长到2009年的68.18亿t,年均增长率为6.13%;(2)交通部门二氧化碳排放量增长最快,年均增长率达到了8.53%,热电厂、工业与建筑业、民用和商业部门对应的二氧化碳的年均增长率分别为8.23%、5.24%、0.75%,农业部门的二氧化碳排放量处在持续波动中;(3)2009年中国热电厂、工业与建筑业、交通运输、民用和商业、农业各部门二氧化碳排放分担率分别为41.9%、42.6%、8.8%、5.9%、0.8%;(4)1996-2009年中国二氧化碳排放量与经济增长经历了从弱脱钩发展为扩张性复钩最后又回到弱脱钩的过程。

Inventory of CO2 emissions in China during the period from 1995 to 2009 was calculated and the carbon flow chart of the year 2009 worked out,and based on which this paper analyzed the decoupling relation between CO2 emissions and economic growth in China. Results of the study indicated that CO2 discharge of China as a whole increased to 6 818million tons in 2009 with an annual average growth rate of 6.13% during the period 1995-2009. As to the growth rate of CO2 emission,the transportation is the fast among others with an increase of 8.53% per year. Shares of the main sectors in the country in terms of CO2 emissions were thermal power accounted for 41.9%, industry and construction 42.6%,transportation 8.8%, civil and commercials 5.9% and agriculture 0.8%. Status from 1996 to 2009 of decoupling relation between CO2 and economic growth underwent the pattern from weak decoupling to expansive coupling and at last back to weak decoupling.