欧洲第二次人口转变理论及其对中国的启示

European Second Demographic Transition Theory and Its Implications for China

欧洲二战后经历了一个短暂的"婴儿潮"后,生育率持续下降,到20世纪末进入了"超低生育率"时代。这种变化趋势完全超出了经典人口转变理论对人类生育行为变化轨迹的判断和预测。作为人口学领域的最新理论之一,第二次人口转变理论回归人口问题研究的社会学分析范式,从后现代化的视阈揭示了欧洲国家在社会结构性变迁、文化力量冲击和个体化发展的背景下,婚姻、家庭和生育模式的重新建构,并在个体与社会结构之间关系的转型中解读了人类生育行为的新变化。这一理论对于研究中国低生育率时代的人口变化及其社会变迁具有很好的借鉴价值。

Europe after World War II experienced a brief ＂baby boom＂, the fertility rate continued to decline, and went into the ＂low fertility＂ era by the end of the 20th century. This trend is completely beyond the judgments and predictions of the classical theory on human reproductive behavior. The second demographic transition theory as one of the latest theories in the field, returns to sociological analysis paradigm from a post - modernization perspective, and reveals reconstruction patterns of marriage, family and fertility in the context of social structural, cultural and personal values changes in European countries, and explains the changes of human fertility behavior. The theory has a good reference value for the study of the demographic changes in the era of low fertility in China.