地价级差、贸易顺差与高房价

The Differential Land Price System,Trade Surplus and High Home Price

本文所做的分析表明,政府的土地基价级差是导致贸易顺差与房价上涨问题不断加剧的核心制度安排。首先,以"牺牲"农民利益为特征的土地"农转非",以及非农用地中"重工轻商"的分类价格级差制度,通过为工业部门提供成本低廉的土地,促进了工业产出扩张并引发贸易顺差;其次,贸易顺差累积所对应的"超额储蓄"与资本项目管制会导致可交易性资产供给缺口率上扬,并推动房价上涨。而房价上涨又通过赋予政府更强大的土地收入汲取能力,促进了基础设施建设并带来工业部门的进一步扩张。最终的宏观经济结果是,中国的贸易顺差与房价不断交替上升。按照上述逻辑,尽管受美欧金融危机的影响,中国贸易顺差自2008年以来出现下滑,然而,一旦外部因素出现逆向变化,中国贸易顺差完全有可能重拾上升的势头,并再次从基本面角度给房价上涨注入新的动力。

The paper regards the differential land price system as the core arrangement of the mechanism of economy growth-oriented governmental stimulation booming trade surplus and home price. Firstly, the system of land being transferred from agricultural sector to non-agricultural sector, hurts peasant＇s benefit. Furthermore, it promotes the growth of the industrial sector and triggers a trade surplus together with the system of discriminatory land price difference among agriculture, industry and real esta^e sector. Secondly, the excess saving brought by trade surplus accumulation will expand the sup- ply gap o~ tradable asset and boom home price. Subsequently, the huge amount of land income collected by governments in the process of housing price growth, continue to be used to finance infrastructure, which can attract more industrial investment. The process is cyclical, and China＇s trade surplus rises alternately with the home price. According to above logic, despite China＇s trade surplus has declined for the financial crisis of U. S. and E.U. since 2008, once the external factors have adverse changes, China＇s trade sur- plus is entirely possible to regain upward momentum, and give new impetus to real estate prices again.