营口市气温预报方法研究

Research of the Temperature Forecast Method in Yingkou City

地面气温与大气低层温度存在明显的正相关。利用NCEP/NCAR 850 hPa和925 hPa的温度资料与营口市的日最高和最低气温分季建立预报回归方程,并分析了风向、风速、低云量和降水对日最高和最低气温变化的影响程度并建立预报指标,对预报回归方程进行订正。对预报方程结果进行了预报检验,结果表明:日最高气温预报误差小于2℃的预报准确率,春季为57.6%,夏季为82.2%,秋季为83.3%,冬季为78.3%;日最低气温预报误差小于2℃的预报准确率,春季为64.1%,夏季为82.6%,秋季为70%,冬季为60%。

There was a positive correlation of ground temperature and the temperature of the lower atmosphere layer. Firstly, based on the NCEP/NCAR 850 hPa and 925 hPa temperature data and the daily maximum and mini- mum temperature, the Seasonal forecasting regression equations are established. Secondly, the Influence of Wind direction, wind speed, low cloud cover and precipitation on the change of the daily maximum and minimum temper- atures are analyzed, and prediction indexes are established, then the prediction results of the seasonal forecasting regression equations are revised. Lastly, the prediction results are tested. The results show that regarding the pre- diction error which is smaller than 2 ℃ as the criterion of correct prediction, the prediction accuracy of the daily maximum temperature is 57.6% in spring, 82.2% in summer, 83.3% in autumn, 78.3% in winter and the Pre- diction accuracy of the daily minimum temperature is 64. 1% in spring, 82.6% in summer, 70% in autumn, 60% in winter.