条件概率P(I/(A∩B∩C))上界的一个估计

To Research Sup-boundary of the Conditional Probability P( I /( A∩B∩C) )

设抽样空间为U,A,B,C是随机事件,I和I'是一对互补随机事件.故有下面的结果:如果πI'(A,B,C)>πI(A,B,C)>0,那么■当P(I/(A∩B∩C))的上界是很小的正数时,且A,B,C这些因子同时发生时,可预测I'将要发生.

Abstract： Given a sample space U, A, B, C, ...is all the subset of U. We can assume that I and I＇ are a pair of mutually complement events. We gests the following theorem：If π1＇（A,B,C）〉π1（A,B,C）〉0, thenP（I/（A ∩ B ∩ C）） 〈 P（I）/P（l＇） · P（A/I）/P（A/I＇） · P（B/I）/P（B/I＇） · P（C/I）/P（C/I＇）When the supper bound of P （I/（A ∩ B ∩ C））is very small, and when A, B and C occursimultaneously, we can forecast ＂the I＇ will occur＂.