人民币汇率变动对我国就业影响的SVAR分析

A SVAR Analysis in the Effects of RMB Exchange Rate on China's Employment

在国内就业形势不容乐观和人民币逐渐升值的背景下,研究人民币汇率对我国就业的影响具有重要现实意义。在汇率影响就业的理论分析基础上,选择1980-2011年相应变量数据建立SVAR模型并赋予约束条件,实证检验人民币实际有效汇率与就业之间的关系。结果表明,实际有效汇率与就业量存在负向的均衡关系,人民币升值在长短期内都将抑制就业的增长。

With tough employment situation and RMB appreciation, the analysis of impacts of RMB exchange rate on China＇s employment has practical significance. This paper theoretically analyzes exchange rate changes on domestic employment, and then makes an empirical study on the relation between RMB exchange rate and employment by using data from 1980 to 2011. The results suggest that appreciation of RMB has negative impact on employment both in the long-term and the short run.