中国煤矿安全内生性规制效果研究——基于非线性STAR模型的实证分析

The Effect of China's Coal Mine Safety Endogenous Regulations ——An Investigation Based on STAR Model

本文使用相关月度数据对我国煤矿安全规制效果分别采用线性VAR模型与非线性STAR模型进行了实证分析。VAR模型研究表明,前期发生事故导致的煤矿安全规制水平增加会导致后期规制水平的提高,且会维持较长时间;STAR模型研究表明,煤矿安全规制可以划分出三个运行状态,即低规制水平状态、正常状态以及高规制水平状态,仅当处于正常状态时,煤矿安全规制是有效的。

Based on monthly time series data, this paper makes empirical research on the effect of China＇s coal mine safety endogenous regulations with linear VAR model and nonlinear STAR model. The result of VAR model shows that the increase of coal mine safety regulations level generated by occurrence of accidents will lead to raising the level of the safety regulations ex post inevitably, and such shocks caused by the level of safety regulations will be maintained for longer periods. The result of nonlinear STAR model shows that coal mine safety regulations can be roughly divided into three operating status： lower status, middle status, and higher status. More importantly, only in middle status, coal mine safety regulations can be effective.