基于MaxEnt的入侵植物刺轴含羞草的适生分布区预测

MaxEnt-based prediction of potential distribution areas of Mimosa pigra L.

【背景】刺轴含羞草是世界危害最严重的100种入侵生物之一,因此明确刺轴含羞草在全球以及中国的潜在分布对有效预防和控制其蔓延具有重要意义。【方法】本研究利用MaxEnt生态位模型对刺轴含羞草在全球以及中国潜在分布区进行预测。【结果】结果表明,刺轴含羞草适生区分布在全球南北纬30度以内的热带和亚热带地区。其中,中南美洲、非洲中部、东南亚以及大洋洲北部为刺轴含羞草中、高度适生区的集中分布区。中国处于刺轴含羞草适生区的边缘。刺轴含羞草在中国的适生区主要分布在云南、海南、广东西南部以及台湾地区。在温室气体A1B排放模式下,到2050年,刺轴含羞草在全球适生区面积与当前相似,但在中国的适生区略有减少。【结论与意义】刺轴含羞草有入侵我国大陆的风险,检疫部门应对刺轴含羞草进行检疫,防止其入侵。

[ Background] Mimosa pigra L. is one of 100 worst invasive alien species in the world. It is very meaningful to clearth erefore important to determine the potential distribution of M. pigra in the world and especially in China in order to predict and effec tively control its spread. [ Method] MaxEnt niche model was used to predict the potential distribution of M. pigra in China then the world. [ Result] The results showed M. pigra was mainly distributed between 30°N and 30°S in the tropical and subtropical regions with suitable and highly suitable areas in Central and South America, Central Africa, Southeast Asia, and North Australia. Southern China was at the edge of suitable areas of M. pigra with potential suitable areas in provinces of Yunnan, Hainan, Guangdong, and Taiwan in China. Considering the greenhouse gas emission Alb scenario, by 2050, it is predicted that the distribution of M. pigra would not change significantly in the world, but may be reduced in China. [ Conclusion and significance]M, pigra has the risk to invasive China's Mainland and should be quarantined to prevent its invasion.