移动电话新增市场需求与影响因素分析

The Demand of New Markets of Mobile Phones and Influencing Factors

基于31省的经济发展、社会发展、人口指标等统计数据,建立了影响手机用户普及率的线性回归模型,得出了影响手机用户普及率的关键因素,并以湖南的数据为基础对模型进行了实证。同时,基于三寡头静态需求模型,并根据NASH均衡的特性,构建了移动电话新增市场需求模型,基于双寡头动态博弈模型,构建了移动电话新增市场动态需求模型。本文认为,移动电话市场普及率与当地的经济发展水平息息相关。移动电话新增市场是充分竞争市场,目前主要表现为价格竞争。在价格竞争的前提下,若先行动者的价格水平小于或等于某一常数,先行动者将获得先发优势。但是,价格对于移动电话市场需求的作用最终将受制于移动电话的现实普及率,受制于当地的经济发展水平、人口构成情况、人口增长情况和人口流动流动情况。

Based on the data on economic development, social development and population index from 31 provinces, this paper proposes a liner regression model of influencing the popularity rate of mobile phones and obtain the key factors. The model is empirically tested by using the data of Hunan province. Meanwhile, Demand Model of New Markets of Mobile Phones is also constructed based on a Cournot oligopoly static demand model and the characteristics of NASH equilibrium. Then a dynamic Demand Model of New Markets of Mobile Phones is built based on Two-oligopoly dynamic game Model. This paper points out that the popularity rate of mobile phone markets is closely related to the local economic development level. The new markets of mobile phones are sufficiently competitive, which is characterized by price competition, under which, the price of the first movers is lower than or equal to a constant, and they will obtain first-mover advantages. However, the effect of price on the demand of mobile phone markets is finally subject to the real popularity rate of mobile phones, the local economic development level, and population structure, its growth and mobility.