为什么能源效率与碳排放同步增长——基于回弹效应的解释

Why do the Energy Efficiency on Reduction and Carbon Emission Increase Simultaneous—— From the Perspective of Rebound Effect

能源效率回弹效应的存在会导致能效政策受限或失效,该假设在一些国家和行业已得到了证实。通过编制2007能源社会核算矩阵,借助CGE模型模拟能源效率提高对碳排放的影响,结果发现当煤炭、石油和电力利用效率分别提高4%后,主要部门的碳排放分别减少0.98%,0.44%和1.9%.这表明能源效率政策在我国是有效的,能源效率的提高能显著减少碳排放,其中电力能源效率的提高能更好地实现减排结果;但研究发现,回弹效应的存在使得能源效率提高减少的碳排放部分会被抵消掉,碳排放不可能同比例的减少。理论上推动能源效率政策的后评价研究,实践中更加准确地衡量能源效率碳减排的效果。

The rebound effect may limit or invalidate the energy efficiency policy which has been tested in several countries and industries, By planning 2007 energy Social Accounting Matrix and applying the CGE model, we assess the impact of energy efficiency increase on carbon emission. The results show that the carbon emission reduces by 0. 98^ from coal, 0. 44% from oil and 1. g % from electricity in major sectors when each of their efficiency increases 4 %. It implies that energy efficiency policies do have an effect and can reduce carbon emission. The improvement of energy efficiency on electricity can receive better carbon emission reduction results. The research demonstrates that, however, because of rebound effect, the reduction of carbon emission from energy efficiency could be partly offset. The carbon emission would not decrease proportionally. In theory, this paper extends the research on after-evaluation of energy efficiency policy. In practice, it helps to measure the exact effectiveness of carbon reduction.