“后人口红利时代”中国的挑战与机遇——基于老龄化经济影响的视角

China's Challenges and Opportunities Facing the “Post-Demographic-Dividend Era”——Studies on Population Ageing and Its Long-term Economic Impacts

中国人口老龄化由于其社会经济发展的特定轨迹而呈现出鲜明特征,同时计划生育政策又对老龄化进程的加速产生了助推作用。人口再生产过程有其自身的规律和惯性,超低生育率在中国部分地区的出现将对社会发展产生潜在的负面影响。人口老龄化前景及其对社会经济的长期影响必须引起高度重视。从"人口红利期"向"后人口红利时代"的转变是人口转型过程中不可回避的阶段,这也是中国未来发展的一项重大战略课题,可谓挑战与机遇并存。首先,老龄化为社会保障体系带来严峻的挑战,隐性债务和个人账户空账仍是养老保障体制可持续发展面临的难题,巨额的医疗费用和照护成本又将对公共医保体制造成巨大压力;其次,老龄化对劳动力市场产生冲击,一方面直接改变劳动力供给进而影响劳动生产率,另一方面间接影响劳动力需求并推高劳动力成本;第三,老龄化将削弱中国劳动密集型产业的国际竞争力,这同时也是促进经济转型的一次机遇;第四,老龄化进程蕴含着潜力无穷的消费市场,老龄产业的蓬勃兴起将给经济发展带来强大的动力。

Ageing process in China has shown its specific characteristics and reasons with its rapid economic development and family planning policy carrying out. bwest-low fertility in some provinces in China will do harm to the development of society and the correspondingly perspective of population ageing should be brought to the forefront. The transition from demographic-dividend-era to post-demographic- dividend-era is unavoidable during the entire process of demographic transition of China, where challenges and opportunities do coexist. The long-term social and economic impacts of population ageing include impacts on social security program, labor market, international industrial competitiveness and domestic consumption structure.