秦皇岛市经济与环境的协调发展度测算及预测研究

Estimation and Forecast of Coordinated Development Degree between Economic and Environment in Qinhuangdao City

根据协调发展度理论,构建秦皇岛市经济与环境协调发展指标体系,利用因子分析法评价秦皇岛市经济与环境综合发展水平,通过协调发展度模型测算两个系统之间的协调发展度数值,并采用GM(1,1)模型对秦皇岛市经济与环境协调发展度的变化趋势进行预测。结果表明:2002年-2011年间秦皇岛市经济与环境的协调发展状况由初级协调发展类型转变为中等协调发展类型;秦皇岛市经济发展始终滞后于环境发展;2005年以来经济发展速度快于环境发展速度,环境压力逐渐加大;预测显示,"十二五"期间秦皇岛市经济与环境的协调发展度将继续提高,到2014年转变为良好协调发展类型。

Based on the coordinated development degree theory, this paper builds an index system for coordinated develop- ment between economy and environment, evaluating the level of coordinated development between economy and environment in Qinhuangdao City by factor analysis. It studied the value of the coordinated development between the two systems through the co- ordinated development degree model, and predicts the trends of economic and environmental coordinated development degree in Qinhuangdao by GM （ 1,1 ） model. The result shows that the coordination degree is improving from primary type into a middle - coordinated type from 2002 to 2011. Economic development has always lagged behind environmental development, while the pace of economic development is faster than pace of environment development since 2005 and environmental pressure gradually in- creased. Projections indicate that the coordinated development of the economy and the environment will continue to improve in 2014 into a well - coordinated development during the ＂12th Five - Year Plan＂ period in Oinhuangdao City.