世界经济悄然复苏

A modestly rising tide lifts many boats

世界经济现在增长还不够强劲，发达市场现在正在引导着发展中国家恢复经济。现在的通胀是比较低的，这也可以说为需求增长服务，低利率也是很有利的。各国央行可以进行一些货币政策方面的实验，经济五年之后会如何，政策制定者将因此会有很多腾挪的空间。

Growth is rebounding because policy makers have been constructive. OMT, Abenomics, fading fiscal drags and enhanced forward guidance shift risk profile and generate a positive policy impulse. The Euro area is the lift that matters in 2013. The US kicks in the next spring. Continued fiscal adjustments, tight credit and weak EM profitability limit growth lift to trend. A rising tide in manufacturing is lifting most boats. North Asia and EM Europe benefit most. Employment is expected to lag growth upturn as firms rebuild margins. Look for productivity is to pick up. Consumers have been strong this year. They are now slowing and business spending weakness needs to fade. 2013 delivers second lowest inflation on record. Sub-par growth and unwinding of EM bottleneck pressures drive inflation down. Low inflation has hurt corporates and has redistributed growth towards consumers and the DM. G4 central banks(ex. ECB) test the limits of the growth/ inflation tradeoff. Supply side indicators have been weak across a wide range of economies. With inflation contained, central banks are trying to generate a demand stimulus that also raises potential. Fed is likely to end QE in 2014, but push out timing of first Fed rate hike. BoJ is trying to raise inflation expectations and keep nominal interest rates low. It will expand its balance sheet further. The best case is a credible failure in hitting its 2% inflation target. The ECB is doing too little and risks sub-1% inflation and an unwanted Euro rise. The BoE looks to have extended too far.