北京能源消费排放CO_2增量的影响因素分析——基于三层嵌套式的I-O SDA技术

An Analysis of Influencing Factor on the Increase of CO_2 Emission Because of Energy Consumption in Beijing——Based on Three-level Nested Method of I-O SDA Technique

通过构建一个扩展的竞争型经济-能源-碳排放投入产出表,运用三层嵌套结构式I-O SDA技术,从整体情况、分产业、工业分行业3个层面,对1997—2007年北京的碳排放增量进行了分解。结果表明:消费、投资、调出和出口等经济规模增长要素,以272.46%的贡献率成为增排的主要因素,而能源消费强度变动效应,则以-237.13%的贡献率成为减排的决定性因素;在规模扩张各效应中,调出和消费超过投资和出口达8 403.38×104t,是增排的主要贡献者;2002—2007年间以"高碳"为特征的新一轮工业化,使该期增排占到1997—2007年总增量的86.41%;服务业的贡献率是75.93%,为增排的第一大部门,但2002—2007年工业超出服务业1 036.40×104t;重制造业的贡献率是1 030.76%,为增排的重点行业,而能源工业则以-992.81%的贡献率,成为减排的重点行业;各时段各效应在不同产业、工业不同行业发挥的作用大小不同且不够稳定。

An extension model of buys in and import-competition economy-energy-CO2 emission input-output model was designed using three-level nested method of Structural Decomposition Analysis to decompose CO2 emission increase in Beijing during 1997-2007 from three aspects as integral, industries and industrial sectors. The research results are following： The main factors for CO2 emission increase were the effect of economic scale expansion such as consumption, investment, export and sell, their contribution rate was 272.46%; the dominant factor for reducing CO2 emission is the changing effect of energy consumption intensity, its contribution rate was-237.13%; in effect of economic scale expansion, sell and consumption became the main contributors for carbon emissions increase with over investment and export reaching 8403.38 × 10^4 t; since the new round industrialization with ＂high carbon＂ features, the increase of CO2 emissions in 2002-2007 was 86.41% of the total emissions of 1997-2007; service industry was the first large sector of carbon emissions increase, its contribution rate was 75.93%, but industrial carbon emissions increase had surpassed service industry by 1036.40× 10^4t during 2002-2007; as for industrial branch aspects, heavy manufacturing was the key industry of carbon emissions increase, and its contribution rate was 1030.76%; energy industrial was the major industry of carbon emission reduction, and its contribution rate was-992.81%; the effects played different roles and were not stable enough in different industries or different industrial sectors in each period.