Delphi法建立武警洪灾救援伤病预计指标体系

Indices estimation system which established with Delphi methods for diseases and injuries of CAPF occurred in flood

【摘要】目的建立武警部队洪灾救援伤病预计的指标体系及权重，提高卫勤保障能力。方法采用自行设计的专家咨询表，通过三轮专家Delphi法和层次分析法确定指标体系及权重。结果专家咨询一级、二级和三级指标的协调系数和权威系数分别为0．81、0．82、082和0．42、O．68、0．68，协调系数均有统计学意义，P〈0．05。经过3轮专家咨询确定的指标体系包括3个一级指标，10个二级指标和40个三级指标，其中灾情因素在部队洪灾救援伤病预计的权重最高。结论用Delphi法构建的武警部队洪灾救援伤病预计指标体系可信度、可靠性高，可为部队洪灾救援时伤病预计量化研究提供参考。

Objective To establish the indices estimation system for diseases and injuries occurrence in flood, and improve our capability of health service support. Methods Adopting self-designed survey information form, the indicators and their respective weight were determined by using the three-round Delphi method and analytic hierarchy method. Results The experts authoritative degree were 0.81, 0.82, and 0.82 for first-dimension second-dimension and third-dimension respectively, while their Kendall coefficient of concordance were 0.42, 0.68, and 0.68 accordingly which carried statistical significance ,P 〈0.05. The indices system were constituted with three first-dimension, ten second-dimension and forty third- dimension which were established through three circles. In all the given indices, factor of disaster situation had the largest weight. Conclusion The indices system constituted with Delphi method is reliable and valid, and it may provide references for estimating the outcome in rescue mission for flood.