基于RClimDex模型的江西省极端降水时空变化研究

Research on the Change of Extreme Precipitation in Jiangxi Province Based on RClimDex Model

随着全球气候变化,极端降水现象频发,这对人类生产生活造成严重影响。利用江西省11个地级市气象站1960-2005年逐日降水数据,基于RClimDex模型定量计算该区域极端降水指数及其时空分布情况。结果表明:江西省近46年来极端降水各项指数,除持续干燥指数(CDD)外,均呈不同程度上升趋势,以极端降水日数(R25)和极端降水量(R95P)最为显著;在3种典型年的极端降水事件上,各指数均呈东高西低态势,除普通日降水强度(SDII)基本处于稳定状态,其余指数差异显著;极端多水和少水年的RX5day、R95P值均明显高于平水年,表明多水年或少水年情况下的极端降水事件发生频率相对较高。

With global climate change, extreme precipitation events are increasing, which causes a serious influence human production and life. In this paper, precipitation data of 11 meteorological stations of prefecture-level cities in Jiangxi Province from 1960-2005, were calculated and their spatio-temporal distribution of extreme precipitation indices were analyzed with RClimDex model. The re- sults show that.. Jiangxi Province, nearly 46 years＇ extreme precipitation indices, except consecutive dry days（CDD）, showed a dif- ferent but general upward trend, the number of extreme precipitation days（R25）and extreme precipitation（R95P） was the most sig- nificant~ a comparison of three typical years＇ extreme precipitation events for each indice revealed a high value in the East and a low value in the West, except ordinary daily precipitation intensity（SDII） is basically in a stable state, other remaining indices differ sig- nificantly~ in extremely rainy years and extremely dry years, five-day maximum precipitation and five-day extreme precipitation of ei- ther extremely rainy years or extremely dry years were much higher than the average water years~ extreme precipitation events in extremely dry years and extreme rainy years may hold much frequency and variation than average water years.