人口与经济分布匹配视角下的中国区域均衡发展

Balanced Regional Development in China: Demographic and Economic Distribution Mismatch

从统计上看,一个地区偏离均衡发展的程度可以表示为该地区GRP(Gross Regional Product)占全国份额与人口占全国份额的偏离程度,区域差异其实就是其经济分布与人口分布间的不匹配程度。文章使用度量人口与经济分布不匹配程度的指标,重新审视了中国的区域差距及其变化,发现区域差距自2003年以后呈现收敛趋势;通过把区域差距分解为人口聚集和经济聚集程度变化的相对差异,探讨了区域差距变化的动态机制,发现中国的区域差距主要由经济聚集度变化所决定,人口聚集度变化往往处于从属地位,但随着人口流动壁垒的降低,其在缩小区域差距上的作用在不断加大;文章最后讨论了如何实现中国区域协调发展的路径选择。

Unbalanced regional development can be examined by looking at the mismatch be- lween demographic distribution and economic distribution across the regions. Using the indicators measuring the degree of mismatch between demographic and economic distribution of the regions in China, this paper revisits the disparities and their changes in regional development, identifying a con- verging trend in the regional differences after 2003. By decomposing the regional differences into contri- butions of demographic and economic concentrations, this paper also explores the mechanisms of changing regional differences, and concludes that the changes of regional differences are more attribut- able to the effects of economic gathering than to those of demographic gathering. Demographic con- centration is playing an increasingly important role in reducing the regional differences with reducing barriers to population mobility. The paper also discusses policy approaches addressing balanced re- gional development in China.