中国碳排放重心转移与驱动因素分析

Study on the Shift of CO_2 Emissions Gravity Center and Driving Factors

本文利用全国省级面板数据,结合重心模型对全国经济总量、碳排放与碳排放强度重心转移轨迹进行研究,并对其驱动因素进行了分析。结果表明:中国碳排放量与碳排放强度重心逐渐向西南方向移动,而经济重心却呈现出向西北方向移动的轨迹。经济增长是导致碳排放增长的重要因素,能源效率可以有效抑制碳排放增长,并且能源效率的区域分布不均衡是导致碳排放重心与经济重心移动轨迹出现偏离的主要原因。产业结构则因碳锁定效应的影响在短时期内尚难较大程度地影响碳减排。据此,本文认为,在未来一段时间内,施行技术节能仍然是中国降低碳排放最直接、最有力的政策措施,尤其是对于中、西部地区,提高能效是推进节能减排的重要着力点;政府应继续加强对区域能效的有效监管,保证节能减排的各项政策法规切实施行;从长远看,优化产业结构与提升产业发展水平则是降低碳排放的根本措施。

Under the circumstances of global climate change and energy shortage, promoting the coordinated development of economy, energy and environment, and transforming to low carbon economy is an inevitable choice for China. Based on the provincial panel data, this paper investigates the evolution track of the economic gravity center, COz emissions gravity center and carbon intensity gravity center, and reveals the driving factors. The results show that the gravity center of CO2 emissions is moving to the southwest region, but the gravity center of economy is shifting to southeast region. Economic growth is a main factor affecting the growth of CO2 emissions, while energy efficiency plays an important role in lowing CO2 emissions, which is also the main reason that the spatial moving direction between the economic gravity center and CO2 emissions gravity center. By influencing of carbon lock-in, the industrial structure adjustment has little effect on CO2 emissions in the short run. According to the results, this paper puts forward that in the future, the policy makers should focus on improving energy efficiency, especially for middle and western regions, and strengthening the supervision of energy efficiency in every region to ensure the effective implementation of energy saving and emissions reduction. In the long run, optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure are still the fundamental measures of reducing carbon emissions.