国家统计能力的国际比较研究——基于世界银行统计能力公告牌(BBSC)数据库研究的经验证据

Comparative Analysis on National Statistical Capacity ——Empirical Evidence Based on World Bank's Bulletin Board on Statistical Capacity

中国统计数据发布频率不高,同时存在较长滞后期,统计数据质量也相对不高。本文根据世界银行统计能力公告牌(BBSC)数据库中关于统计方法、数据来源和信息发布的频率与及时性这三方面,对中国在各项指标得分分别与世界、亚洲各发展中经济体,以及金砖国家和部分发达国家进行比较分析。结果表明中国的统计能力综合得分虽然在2011年和2012年有了明显提高,处于BBSC数据库的中上水平,但仍低于其他金砖国家,与美国等发达国家之间的差距更加明显,这与我国统计体系不健全、统计投入力度不够、统计核算覆盖率不高以及发布统计信息不及时有关。故国家统计局应针对我国国民核算、进出口价格指数、政府财政、SDDS、卫生调查能力、生命登记系统和小学毕业率这些得分低的指标相应加大统计投入、提高信息透明度、及时发布信息,以期尽快建立健全适合中国国情并与国际接轨的统计方法制度体系。

This paper compares China＇s statistical capacity scores with other emerging economies listed on World Bank＇s Bulletin Board on Statistical Capacity （BBSC） databases and some developed countries from statistical methodology, source data, and periodicity and timeliness of information release. The analysis shows that despite a sharp increase in China＇s statistical capacity overall score since 2011, China＇s statistical capacity score is lower than other BRIC countries and developed countries such as the United States. This results from China＇s imperfect statistical system, inadequate statistical spending and the lag of releasing statistical information. Therefore, considering the statistical indicators like national accounts, import/export prices, government finance, SDDS, health survey, vital registration system and primary completion, the National Statistical Office should augment China＇s statistical spending, improve the publicity of information, release the information timely, in order to establish a sound statistical methodology system that fits China＇s national conditions and is in line with the international standards.