技术进步的非连续性与生产要素的阶段性转换——对英国200年经验的实证及对中国的启示

Discontinuiy of technological advance and phased conversion of productive elements——Empirical study on Britain’s 200-year experiences and the implication for China

本文对英国在1761—1960年间200年的经济增长因素分解研究发现,决定和影响英国经济增长的生产要素在继投资扩张之后,创新或技术进步并不是经济持续增长的主要支撑要素。实际情况是技术因素和资本扩张因素不是具有强烈的阶段互补性,就是呈阶段性的更替。这与以索洛模型为代表的现代经济增长模型诠释的决定长期经济增长因素的假说和现在正普遍流行的观念存在差异。中国在转变发展方式过程中既要重视创新和技术进步,也不能简单抛弃资本积累。

Upon the study on the factors influencing Britain＇ s 200 years of economic growth over the 1761 - 1960 period, we find that after investment expansion among the productive factors determining and influencing Britain＇s economy, innovation or technological advance is not the main supporting factor for consistent economic growth. The reality is that technology and capital expansion are not complementary but they replace each other at phases. That differs from the hypothesis of the factors determining long- term economic growth, which is explained by modem economic growth model represented by Solow Model, and from the prevailing concepts and ideas. In the process of transforming development pattern, China should put emphasis on innovation and technological advance, nor could it reject capital accumulation simply.