韩国天然气进口最优方案的实证研究

Empirical Study of the Optimized Strategy of South Korea's Gas Import

天然气作为一种最清洁化石燃料,在低碳环保举措不断加大的背景下,其需求不断增长。在考虑天然气安全与保障方面的风险因素,即进口价格成本、出口国的国家风险、海上运输风险、出口国的自然灾害风险等的基础上,推导出的韩国最优天然气进口数量和方案,其结果相比于2011年度韩国实际进口数据分布均匀且合理,可为今后测算中国天然气进口最优国别数量和方案提供值得借鉴和参考的研究方法。

As the cleanest fossil fuel at present, natural gas is demanded heavily under the back- ground of low-carbon environmental protection. The optimized quantitiy and solution of Korea＇s gas import, which involve risks related to import cost, the exporter, maritime transport and natural disasters in the export countries, are derived herein. The data derived are balanced and reasonable compared to the real import statistics in 2011 of Korea. Thus the method used in the derivation will be helpful to calculate the optimized quantity and solution of China＇s gas import in the future.