中日总产出波动与服务产业结构演变互动关系比较分析

Comparative Analysis of the Correlation between Total Output Fluctuation and the Structure Change of Service Industry in China and Japan

通过中国和日本2000-2011年的实际经济数据,采用HP滤波方法获取周期数据,对中日总产出波动与服务产业结构演变关系进行实证分析发现:第一,分类服务产业结构演变显示,中日两国传统服务业比重呈不断下降趋势,相比传统服务业,两国现代服务业比重呈不断上升趋势;第二,周期波动和相关性检验显示,中国服务产业与总产出周期波动显著高于日本,中国现代服务业和社会服务业的失衡性发展,极有可能对传统服务业产生负效应;第三,格兰杰短期因果关系检验显示,中日服务产业和产出总量指标分别在1996-2011和1986-2011年期间存在显著的双向格兰杰因果关系,尤其"金融保险业"和"房地产、租赁与商务业"是总产出的单向格兰杰原因,因此应对中国过热的房地产服务业给予更多关注,避免在中国重现"日本失去的十年"。

Based on the economic data handled by HP-Filter during the period of 2010 to 2011, an empirical study of the correlation between economic fluctuation and the structure change of service industry in China and Japan is made herein. It shows that a downward trend of tradi- tional service is obvious, while the percentage of modern service industry has become larger than be{ore in both countries; China＇s total output fluctuation is more frequent than Japan, and the unbalanced situation of the modern service industry may result in a negative effect on tradi- tional service; Granger Causality Test indicates the indexes of total output in China and Japan appeared a two-way Granger cause during the period of 1996-2011 and 1986-2011 respectively, and the ＂banking and insurance industry＂, the ＂real estate, renting and business＂ became the one-way Granger cause of the total output. Therefore, the overheated real estate service industry in China should be focused on so as to avoid a reappearance of ＂the lost ten years in Japan＂.