三网融合背景下网络基础设施升级的理论与实证研究

A Theoretical and Empirical Research on Network Infrastructure Upgrade in the Context of Triple Play

网络基础设施的升级是实现三网融合的硬件支撑,并将促使网络运营商从服务竞争转向设施竞争。本文从动态视角分析了两种竞争阶段及其过渡期的市场竞争。理论分析表明,进入设施竞争阶段不会改变运营商之间的相对市场地位,但能够提升有线运营商的市场需求和利润。在位的电信运营商可能会延缓市场转向设施竞争阶段,有线运营商则通过降低服务的替代性程度加快这一转变。通过计量模型和描述性统计,检验了相关命题,并进一步验证了率先实施融合型业务的有线运营商往往能获得相对多的市场势力。

Chinese government is adopting the Three Network Convergence strategy, an official triple play strategy, to promote several converged pilot projects. The upgraded network infrastructures are highly demanded since operators begin offering the bundle ＂of data, voice and video services in the triple play era. Higher network operation capacity is a basic requirement for those converged services as well as operators＂ competitiveness in the new market environment. Therefore, cable and telecom operators are accelerating the construction of the next generation cable networks and fiber-optic broadband network respectively. The network upgrade will promote the market competition paradigm shifting from currently the service-based competition to a facility-based one. This paper will contribute to the research fields of network infrastructure upgrading, service-based and facility-based competition. As for the theoretical analysis, scholars mostly concentrate on the comparative static analysis while neglect the dynamic perspective. As for the empirical studies, recent literatures have some limitations that set the network penetration as a dependent variable. We improve the previous works in two aspects. First, this paper discusses the upgrade of network infrastructure and the service-based-to-facility- based transition from a dynamic perspective so that the adjustment of market competition in this process could be better understood. Second, we use market power as a key indicator in order to test their effects on network operators followed by the investment of network infrastructures. In the theoretical analysis from the dynamic perspective, our main concern is the comparison between service-based competition and facility-based competition, as well as issues in the transitional stage. Propositions on the market position and influencing factors on operators are proposed. Analysis results show that the comparative market power of cable and telecom operators will keep unchanged in both competition stages. After entering the facility-based competition stage, cable operators could probably gain relatively more market demands and profits. The transition speed, however, might be delayed because of certain factors e. g. the rent reduction by telecom operators, or the large scale of investment by cable operators. To achieve additional market demand and profit, cable operators might have to reduce the degree of substitution between cable and telecom, which could also accelerate the transition to facilities-based competition stage. In the empirical section, we use econometric models and descriptive statistics where cable operators in several provinces have been investigated. Their market powers and business characteristics are analyzed to test theoretical propositions. The analysis results further verify that these factors have limited influence on cable operators＂ market power from facility investment, while the implementation of converged services could enable them to have more market power. As for cable operators, this study argues that making use of network infrastructure is more crucial than building network infrastructure. The Three Network Convergence project has been included in the policy speeding up the development of strategic emerging industries, as well as in the policy restructuring cultural industry to promote socialist cultural development and prosperity. It is necessary for cable operators to promote a variety of converged business combining networks, and content and devices based on the upgraded network infrastructure. The differentiation strategy will help increase market share. Regulatory agencies have to promote other policies that open up a variety of converged services in the market. In addition, the two-way access between cable and telecom operators should be encouraged. Among the first group of trial cities in the Network Convergence project, cable operators are actively promoting a variety of innovative business based on the next generation of broadcasting networks. To enhance the competition among operators in the new network environment, regulatory agencies should expand the pilot projects and licensing certain business so as to speed up China＇ s information industry, cultural industry as well as social development. Moreover, since China＇ s smart grid has applied the Optical Fiber Composite Low-voltage Cable, fiber to the home （FTTH） projects will be accomplished in the near future. That means the grid wilt join in the ＂triple-play＂ market as well. Thus this study could be properly extended to the three-player competition model, including cable, telecom and power grid operators.