我国农村居民消费行为的外部习惯形成特征——基于城镇化背景下的空间面板数据模型研究

The External Habit Formation of Rural Residents' Consumption Behavior in China:Study on Spatial Panel Data Model in the Course of Urbanization

本文考虑到我国省域农村居民消费支出的空间依赖性,并基于外部习惯形成理论模型,通过建立1997-2002年和2006-2011年两个时间段内空间面板数据模型,研究了在城镇化背景下,我国农村居民消费行为的外部习惯形成特征。研究结论显示:(1)在城镇化进程中,我国农村居民消费行为存在显著的内部和外部示范效应。对分项消费的研究显示,总体上来说,内部示范效应在减弱,而外部示范效应在增强。(2)在现阶段,受内部示范效应影响较强的消费项目有食品、衣着和医疗保健;受外部效应影响较强的有衣着、医疗保健和文教娱乐;食品和家庭设备及用品次之;交通通信最低,居住消费受外部效应影响不显著。研究结论表明,随着被统计为城镇居民的农民工真正实现市民化,农村居民消费乃至整个消费需求将有很大的提升空间。

Considering the spatial dependence of provincial consumption expenditure of rural res- idents, the paper studies the external habit formation of rural residents~ consumption behavior In the course of Urbanization in China by establishing the spatial panel data model of 1997--2002 and 2006- 2011 based upon the external habit formation theoretical model. The conclusion shows： first- ly, in the process of urbanization, there is a significant internal and external demonstration effect of consumption behavior of Chinese rural residents. The study of partial consumption shows that on the whole, the internal demonstration effect is becoming lower, while the external demonstration effect is enhancing. Secondly, at the present stage, strong effect by the internal demonstration are food, clothing and medical care consumption items; strong effect by the external demonstration are dress, health care and education and entertainment consumption items, and then the consumption of food, household equipment and supplies, the lowest effect is transportation and communication con- sumption, while living consumption is not obvious. Research findings also shows that along with process of the migrant workers who have been counted as are really becoming urban citizens, con- sumption of rural residents and even the entire consumer demand will have the very big promotion space.