国企投资、需求波动以及产能利用率动态关联研究

Investment Behavior,Demand Fuctuations and Capacity Utilization:An Analysis of Chinese State-owned Enterprises

企业投资行为、需求波动以及产能利用率是反映宏观经济整体运行情况的三个重要指标,现有研究表明它们之间存在着复杂的相互影响关系。通过相关实证分析、检验发现:国有企业投资对需求以及产能利用水平都有着积极的正向影响关系,但是只在短期有效,因此,当面临金融危机这样的外部冲击时,加大国有企业投资是短期内解决经济困境的一个有效方法。此外,需求的波动对投资水平以及产能利用水平均有着较大的积极影响,从长期来看,通过需求的提高拉动中国整体经济增长,实现经济发展模式由投资拉动向需求拉动的转型应是中国经济未来的发展方向。

This paper analyzes the relations among the investment behavior, capacity utilization and consumer demand which are important indicators reflecting the overall macroeconomic operation of state-owned enterprises by PVAR method, combined of China＇s 31 regions＇ data from 1999 to 2011. According to this research, the investment behaviors of state--owned enterprises have a pos- itive effect on demand and capacity utilization, but only in the short term, therefore, when faced with external shocks such as the financial crisis, increasing investment in state--owned enterprises is an effective short--term solution method for economic difficulties. In addition, fluctuations in de mand have a greater positively impact on the investment and capacity utilization. In the long term, China＇s overall economic growth is driven by the increased demand, and achieving economic develop ment goal driven by investment demand transformation should be the future direction of Chinese e- conomy development.