欧中贸易逆差中的FDI因素是否存在逆差转移和贸易替代

FDI Effects in Sino-EU Trade Deficit: Deficit Shift or Trade Substitution?

近年来,欧中贸易逆差问题凸显,贸易摩擦加剧。基于自由资本模型,文章从理论和实证视角分析了欧盟、东亚对华投资对中欧贸易的影响机制,重点讨论欧中贸易逆差是否是东亚对欧盟贸易顺差转移和欧盟对华FDI贸易替代的结果。分析表明,欧中贸易逆差中存在FDI引致的逆差转移和贸易替代效应,且欧盟对华投资的贸易替代效应比东亚对华投资的贸易顺差转移效应更明显。在此基础上为进一步合理利用外资、协调吸引外资与贸易关系提出了相关政策建议。

The number of trade frictions increased sharply in recent years followed by increased deficit problems in EU-Sino trade. With both theoretical and empirical analyses and from the perspective of the flee capital model, this paper mainly examines whether EU-Sino trade deficit is the result of surplus shift of EA-EU trade and trade substitution of EU-Sino trade. The main finding is that FDI affects export nonlinearly, while regional trade arrangements affect investment and then trade to a magnified extent. In addition, the trade substitution effect of EU-Sino trade deficit is more significant than the surplus shift effect of EU trade.