中国省域人口迁移的经济增长效应——基于内生增长视角的实证分析

Economic Growth Effects of Population Migration of China's Provinces: An Empirical Analysis of Endogenous Growth

陈述了改革开放以来我国的人口迁移规律,从理论上分析了人口迁移的动态变迁过程,并结合一般均衡理论、新古典增长模型说明了人口迁移过程中的经济发展水平变动特征。构建含带人口迁移因素的内生增长模型,对人口迁移的内生增长作用机制作出了解析,并以此为基础实证分析了我国省域近10年来人口迁移对经济增长的内生影响特征与变动趋势。二元人口迁移存在明确的动态均衡过程,受其影响,会导致城乡两部门出现产出的一般均衡状态,而这一状态符合新古典增长模型所设定的假设条件与稳态结论。从实际情况看,我国省域间的城乡二元人口净迁移具有明确的经济增长效应,同时不同省份、四大区域总体上表现出增长效应递减特征。

Firstly, the paper states the law of population migration in China since the reform and opening. Secondly it analyzes the dynamic changes of population migration process and de- scribes the changes of economic development characteristics in the process of population migra- tion by the general equilibrium theory and neoclassical growth model. Subsequently it con- structs a endogenous economic growth model with population migration factors analyses endoge- nous growth mechanism of population migration. Then by employing this model it analyses the endogenous impact of China＇s provincial migration on the economic growth of the past 10 years. The results show that the binary population migration has clearly dynamic equilibrium process, and this equilibrium obeys the assumptions of the neoclassical economic growth model. From the actual situation, the urban - rural net migration of provinces has clear effects of economic growth and whether provinces or four regions all showed diminishing of economics growth.