北京市19922009年≥55岁人群全死因影响因素分析

Influencing factors of all cause of death among people aged 55 years and older in Beijing

目的分析北京市≥55岁人群全死因影响因素,为疾病的预防控制提供参考依据。方法采用生存分析方法对首都医科大学宣武医院1992—2009年收集的2 010名北京市≥55岁人群老龄化多维纵向研究数据进行分析。结果 1992年基线的2 010名北京市≥55岁人群至2009年随访结束时共存活356人,失访700人,死亡954例;前3位死因依次为心血管疾病225例(23.58%)、脑血管疾病214例(22.43%)和肿瘤119例(12.47%),占全部死因的58.49%;全死因COX分析结果表明,年龄≥61岁、文盲、饮酒、工具性日常生活活动能力异常、身体健康自评差、糖尿病和高血压人群的死亡风险较高,而女性、居住在城市和精神状态正常人群的死亡风险较低。结论年龄、性别、文化程度、居住地、饮酒、日常生活能力、身体健康自评情况、糖尿病、高血压和精神状态是北京市≥55岁人群全死因的影响因素。

Objective To explore influencing factors of all-cause mortality in adults aged 55 years and over in Beijing city. Methods Cox proportion hazard regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of all-cause mortality. Results Female adults had a decreased risk of death than male adults（relative risk[RR]=0.543,95% confidence interval[95%CI]=0.434-0.678）.The risk of cardiovascular diseases（CVD）mortality increased sharply with age,and the adults with hypertension（RR=1.348,95%CI=1.145-1.588）,hyperglycemia（RR=1.512,95%CI=1.278-1.789）,disability（RR=1.327,95%CI=1.129-1.559）,a self-assessment of unhealth（RR=1.194,95%CI=1.006-1.416）,and illiteracy（RR=1.644,95%CI=1.133-2.386）had significantly increased risk of CVD death.Mortality in rural adults was significantly lower than in adults of mountain villages（RR=0.666,95%CI=0.539-0.840）. Conclusion With disability,self-assessment of unhealth,hyperglycemia,hypertensive,and illiteracy are risks factors for all-causes death among adults aged 55 years and older in Beijing city.