摘要
选取人均可支配收入、商品房新开工面积、商品房销售面积等6个指标建立房地产周期合成指数,基于Hodrick-Prescott滤波方法对中国房地产周期进行研究。研究表明:(1)1990-2011年期间中国房地产共经历4个阶段,每个阶段持续时间大约为3至7年,房地产市场调整频繁;(2)房地产周期与经济周期存在较强的相关性,但两者波动并不同步;(3)投资、收入和价格是影响房地产周期的重要因素;(4)1998年住房政策改革对房地产周期有显著影响。
Selected per capitadisposable income, floor space of commercial houses started, floor spaceofcommercial houses sold, etc. 6 indexes to establish a composite index of realestate cycle, andbased on the HodriekPrescott method to study Chinas real estate cycle. The research results show that：（ 1 ）Chinas relestate demonstrate obvious ly periodical fluctuations with 4 stages during19902011, and the duration of every stage is approximately 3 to 7 years, so theadjustment of real estate market is very frequent.（ 2 ）Although not synchronousthere is a strong correla tion between real estate fluctuation and economiecycle.（3 ）Investment, income, and prices are important factors af fecting realestate cycle.（ 4 ）The housing policy reform of 1998 has significant effect onreal estate cycle.
出处
《建筑经济》
北大核心
2013年第12期83-86,共4页
Construction Economy
