长三角都市区人口集疏过程及其空间格局变化

Spatio-Temporal Variations of Population Distribution and Population Concentration & Decentralization with Data at County Level in the Yangtze Delta Megalopolis

基于1982年、1990年、2000年和2010年4次人口普查数据,利用洛伦兹曲线、基尼系数和人口密度等人口分布研究指标,分析了长三角都市区人口分布态势和地域格局;利用人口增减变化和人口商度等指标探讨了近30年来长三角都市区的人口增减变化和空间集疏情况。研究表明:(1)长三角都市区在保持较为均衡的人口分布态势下人口总量继续增加,上海市及主要大城市核心主导作用日益突出;(2)人口显著增加地区日益增多,人口减少地区逐步减少;(3)以人口强流入为主的人口空间集聚过程日趋激烈;(4)区域发展梯度和经济发展差异已成为人口空间集疏变化的主要诱因和拉力,城市化则是人口流动的主要推动力。

Based on the population census data 1982,1990,2000 and 2010,this paper selected Lorenz curve,Gini coefficient and population density to study the variation of population distribution pattern in the Yangtze Delta megalopolis in recent 30 years, and also used the method of population increase-decrease and population stability variation to study the variation of the temporal and spatial distribution of the population. The results showed that： （1）The total population of the Yangtze Delta megalopolis will continue to increase with the relatively balanced status of population distribution, Shanghai and other major core cities will play play an increasingly important role in this region; （2）Along with the obvious growth of the population sig- nificant increase region,the population decrease region become gradually declined; （3）As the typical representative of popu- lation concentration ＆ decentralization,the inflow intensity of population from external region will become increasingly fierce; （4）With the distinctness of regional development differences and the speeded-up of urbanization, regional disparity and ur- banization became the powerful thrust of population movements, they promoted the spatial distribution of population continue to strengthen.