依赖与脆弱性:农民养老问题的一个实证分析——基于全国十个省份1000余位农民的调查数据

Vulnerability and Dependency:An Empirical Study on the Problem of Farmers' Old-age Security:Based on Thousand Families Survey Data Coming From Ten Provinces in China

文章基于2009年全国十个省份30个行政村1000余位农民的调查数据,从"依赖性—脆弱性—养老困境"的逻辑关系出发,以农民养老的经济依赖途径为切入点,利用Multinomial Logistic回归模型,实证分析了农民养老的脆弱性及其影响因素。结果显示,那些同时具备女性、年龄较大、养儿防老观念比较强、家庭收入比较低、没有儿子、家庭整劳力比较少、纯农户和所在村经济情况比较差特征的农民,是依赖性最强的农民,他们面临的养老脆弱性程度也最高。由于现实生活中,全部具备上述所有条件的农民毕竟是少数,但农村社会政策制定部门可以根据农民满足上述条件的多寡,来判断其养老脆弱性程度的高低,并以此为依据选择农村社会政策的重点关注对象。

The paper,Based on the survey data of a thousand families coming from ten provinces in China in 2009 ,beginning from the logical relationship among dependency, vulnerability and endowment dilemma, pitching-in economic dependence way of farmers＇ old-age security, using Muhinomial Logistic model, analysed empirically the vulnerability of farmers＇ old-age se- curity and its influence factors. The empirical research results revealed that those people who were being of the characteristic including female,the older,stronger idea of raising children for old age,lower of family income,without son,less of labor force, pure peasant household and worse of economic environment in their village, were being of the strongest dependence, and the vulnerability level of their old-age security were the highest. In the real life,the peasants who meet,at the same time,all above characteristic was unusual ,but the relevant government in rural area could judge the vulnerability level of farmers＇ old- age security by the information coming from it, and the they also could Choose the key entitled groups to help them.