基于引力模型与回归分析的城市群地价空间结构研究——以武汉城市圈为例

Empirical Research for Benchmark-price Spatial Structure of Urban Agglomeration Based on the Gravity Model and Regression Analysis:Take Wuhan Urban Agglomeration as An Example

以2012年武汉城市圈统计年鉴相关数据为基础,利用引力模型计算出城市圈内城市质量、城市间引力矩阵和城市发展潜力值;结合基准地价对城市发展潜力值进行空间结构分析和回归分析。结果显示:基准地价同城市发展潜力指数具有极强相关性,说明引力模型在地价空间结构研究中具有适用性;通过对工业地价异常值的修正,说明引力模型不仅可以用来对已有基准地价合理程度进行检验,同时,也能对未知基准地价的城市进行地价水平预测,为城市地价评估方法在理论上作有效的补充。

This paper is based on the related data that agglomerations, using the gravity model to calculate the city development potential value of Wuhan urban agglomerations. comes from 2012 statistical yearbook of Wuhan urban quality, gravity value matrix and city comprehensive Then combined with benchmark-price to make spatial structure analysis and regression analysis of the city development potential value. The regression analysis results show that there is a strong correlation between benchmark-price and city development potential index, and the grav- ity model is applicable in spatial structure study of land price. Through the correction of abnormal value in industri- al land price proves that the gravity model can be used not only for the inspection of the existing base price of land reasonable degree, but also for the prediction of land price level of the city which with unknown base price of land, so that to make effective supplement for the methods of city land price evaluation in theory.