江苏省县域创新产出的空间关联与时空演化

Spatial Association and Temporal Evolution of Innovation Output:An Empirical Study of Jiangsu County-level Regions

采用GeoDa对江苏省县域地区的创新产出空间关联和时空演化进行了探索性空间数据分析,根据空间自相关诊断结果建立了空间滞后回归计量分析模型,以此为依据检验了创新产出与人均GDP的空间关联性。研究表明:在观测期内,江苏省县域创新产出由苏南→苏中→苏北梯度递减;创新产出表现出显著的空间正相关,并具有自我强化的时空演化趋势,观测得到明显的苏南高—高集聚、苏北低—低集聚的局部自相关模式;空间邻居效应对创新产出具有显著的积极影响并随时间推移不断增强,相比于传统OLS法估计值空间滞后模型估计结果更为稳健可信。

The exploratory spatial data analysis on the space differentiation and time evolution of innovation capability from 64 counties of Jiangsu Province during 2009--2011 was implemented using GeoDa software, and spatial lag regression model was developed based on spatial autocorrelation diagnosis, then spatial correlation of the innovation output and per capita GDP was tested. Studies has shown that： （1） in the observation period, innova- tive capacity gradient decrease notably from southern Jiangsu to northern; （2） a significantly positive spatial de- pendence of innovation capability has been captured, the concentration level self-reinforced steadily over time, lo- cal spatial autocorrelation mode has demonstrated high-high agglomeration mode in southern region while low-low agglomeration in northern ; （ 3 ） the self-reinforced spatial neighbor effect has a significantly positive impact on inno- vation output, and the spatial lag regression model are more robust and credible compared to estimation results of traditional OLS method.