认知需要和警告类型对合取谬误的影响

The Effect of Need for Cognition and Warning Type on Conjunction Fallacy

合取谬误是一种常见的判断偏差,它指的是在不确定条件下,个体评估合取事件及其简单事件发生的概率时,对合取规则系统性偏离的一种现象。实验1就认知需要类型对合取谬误的影响进行探讨,结果发现高认知需要的被试较不易表现出双重合取谬误和单合取谬误。实验2探讨了警告类型对合取谬误的影响,结果发现无警告时个体最易表现出单合取谬误,其次是间接警告,最后是直接警告;此外,认知需要与警告类型的交互作用显著,高认知需要的被试在直接警告和间接警告时更少表现出双重合取谬误,在直接警告时更少表现出单合取谬误。

As a common judgment bias, the conjunction fallacy refers to a phenomenon that individual＇ s assessment of conjunctive event and simple event under uncer- tainty systemically deviates the conjunctive rules. Al- though the conjunction fallacy is a well -documen- ted psychological phenomenon in behavioral decision making, existing literature has been limited to its in- fluence factors. In the present study, three experi- ments are conducted to test whether and how the need for cognition （ NC, high NC or low NC） and the warning （no warning or direct warning or indirect warning） affect the conjunction fallacy. Experiment 1 explores the effect of different NC on the conjunction fallacy and finds that subjects with high NC are re- luctant to the dual conjunction fallacy and the single conjunction fallacy. Experiment 2 suggests warning interacts with NC and influences the conjunction fal- lacy, and subjects are most likely to demonstrate the single conjunction fallacy when there is no warning. Practical and theoretical implications are discussed.