南水北调中线明渠工程运行风险评价方法研究

Study on the Risk Evaluation Method for the Open Channel Operation in the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project

在分析南水北调中线明渠工程运行风险主要影响因素的基础上,建立了明渠工程运行风险评价指标体系,并引入了基于直觉模糊集理论的多属性评价模型,对评价体系中各指标进行量化分析,给出了隶属度、非隶属度和犹豫度,最后利用得分函数和TOPSIS法进行综合评价,得到风险等级。以南水北调中线一期工程总干渠潮河段工程风险评价为例,验证了该风险评价方法的有效性和实用性,为工程运行过程中的风险管理工作提供了依据。

According to the analysis of the main factors affecting the operation risk of open channel in the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project, a risk evaluation index system was developed for the open channel. A multiple attribute assessment model with intuitionistic fuzzy set theory was introduced to analyze each evaluation index quantitatively by providing the membership degree, non-membership degree, and hesitancy degree. The scoring function and the ＂Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution＂method were used to evaluate the results and to obtain the risk level. In this paper, the risk evaluation index system was applied to the Chaohe Section of the main channel in the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project, which suggested that the evaluation system is effective and practicable; therefore it can provide references for the risk management of engineering operation.