基于系统动力学的区域低碳发展政策研究——以中国为例

Research on Policy Influences on Regional Low-Carbon Development Based on System Dynamics——Case Study on China

低碳经济是一次全面的经济转型,其必要性和迫切性有目共睹,而低碳经济转型势必需要政策力量的推动才可能实现,因此,研究政策对低碳发展的不同影响就成了政策制定的必经之路。对于低碳发展的研究目前有很多,文章应用系统动力学方法构建区域低碳发展的政策影响模型,并将模拟结果与中国历年统计年鉴数据相比对,证明了模型的有效性。最后对中国未来发展的两种情景进行了预测,并对政策的制定、研究和分析给出了意见和建议。

Establishing low-carbon economy is comprehensive economic restructuring with great necessity and urgency. However, the transition to low-carbon economy can only be achieved with the promotion of policies. So researching the dif- ferent impact of policies on the development of low-carbon economy is a necessity for policy-making. This paper builds a re- gional low-carbon development policy effect model, and compares the simulation results with China Statistical Yearbook data to prove the validity of the model. Then two scenarios of the future development of China are simulated using the SD model. At last, some suggestions about policy-making as well as the study and analysis of policy are proposed.